End of Summer, 2024

You might argue this is "desirability bias" and this is certainly something to guard against. I am eager for hot temperatures to be over. The really hot and nasty temperatures definitely are, and while it may not be arctic yet, just having daily highs near 100 is a pleasant change.

But even ignoring temperatures, there are other signs. When out hiking, I am seeing mature grasses setting seed and more and more yellow Asteraceae (sunflower), both of which are typical of late summer and early fall. Monsoon is still in full swing. Once Monsoon ends and we lose cloud cover and humidity, daytime temperatures will jump up, but nighttime temperatures will drop which provide daily refreshing.

After a week (it is now August 29), the signs seem even more clear. The Monsoon is fading in strength, humidity is decreasing, nighttime lows at the house are down to 70 and promise to drop lower as humidity continues to decrease. Daytime highs are around 100. We will probably get some higher temperatures when all the Monsoon clouds leave and perhaps another pulse of hot weather.

Well into the next week (September 5). Humidity is gone, high pressure has settled over the region, and we are seeing a heat spike. More or less as I suspected. The monsoons are probably gone for good, but we shall see. Temperatures today hit 107 (I saw a spike to 113 at 3PM). Forecast to drop down to 100 for highs into the next week. There is some talk about tropical storms brewing in the Pacific, but some change would be needed for them to find a way here.

Here we are, September 15. We just finished a week of 100 degree highs (with one day spiking to 105). 105 is truly hot, but 100 is "OK", especially for hiking up around 6000 feet in the Santa Ritas where that spells temperatures more like 90-94, which actually feels just fine, even when hiking. Today (9-15) we have a surprise pulse of storms related to a tropical disturbance down south and a forecast of 90 degree highs for the coming week. That should be wonderful.

And here it is, September 21. The first day of Fall. We have just finished a week of very nice weather with highs of 94, and today only 85. All of this feels great, but the forecast for the coming week shows highs up to 100 as an area of high pressure sits over the region. It is nice enough to sleep outdoors -- for the first time this week after several months where it was out of the question. Nighttime lows have gotten down to 60.

Here we are on October 2. We just finished several days of 108 degree temperatures. Looking forward over the next week, the forecast highs are 8-14 degrees above average (so the weatherman says). This means 100 to 104 for the foreseeable future. Nightime lows last night were 75 just before sunrise and only got down to 80 at midnight. A high pressure area is parked over Arizona, not unlike what happened back in 2020. Was the nice weather back in late September a nice anomaly or what should be normal for this time of year? I would say it is the normal and what we are having right now is an oddity. It will be nice when normal becomes the norm.

Now it is October 12 with a forecast high today of 101. They say we have been having 2 weeks of record high temperatures. And they are right. This should have ended with the end of September. But it is what it is, but this is not a normal "end of the summer" by any means.

If you don't believe in global warming, it is time to rethink some things. It is October 23 and we have a chance to set a record for the all time latest day for 100 degree temperatures. If not today, on the coming weekend as the high pressure is expected to settle in over the weekend. We may see cooler temperatures next week.

Now it is October 30 and we have enjoyed 3 days of pleasant temperatures. The past weekend (October 26 and 27) were the last hot days, threatening to set new records if temperatures went over 100 (and perhaps we did). Then Monday night a front passed through. No rain, but it marked the advent of "proper weather". The high yesterday was 70 and today was 80. Another cold front expected this coming weekend, so I think the nice weather is here to stay.

Now it is November 6. A perfect day. Temperatures right now (noon) are 65. This past weekend (November 3) we had a storm system, rain, and shockingly cold temperatures (daytime high of 57). No freezing nights yet. But it seems like we went right from summer to winter with no fall. Of course winter in Tucson is like fall anywhere else.