March 29, 2020

Covid-19 links and information

The Vaccine

There is more than one as of December 27, 2020, and this is probably a good thing given the quantities that will be required. Here are a couple of articles: Of course there are anti-vaccers (however you spell it) and flat earthers. There are always people with any opposite view you care to contemplate. The simple truth is that nothing is without risk. Some people cannot or are unwilling to grasp this. In the case of the Vaccine, the risk of getting vaccinated are a much nicer option than the risk of getting the vaccine. I have met anti-seat belt people who tell me that they want to have the option to quickly jump out of the vehicle in some hypothetical situation. If this is the truth (and it probably isn't) the risk analysis would tell them that they would be much better off wearing the seat belt if they looked at the numbers.

Long term issues

Whenever I start claiming that the response has been overblown, someone starts cautioning me about long term effect of the virus. It is not clear what can be said at this point in time. Some people definitely experience long term effects. So I will keep trying to learn about this and accumulate what I learn in the following link:

My data

I am simply tabulating data, daily if possible, from the Ncov2019.live site.

The numbers are cases and fatalities, first world wide, then for the USA only, then for Arizona. On 3-29-2020 I added the same pair of columns for Arizona.

The main thing I watch is the daily US fatalities. Sometimes (rarely) the site is down and I resort to getting data elsewhere, typically the John Hopkins University site. A Google search on "arizona coronavirus" gives a nice summary.

On 5-13-2020 I added a column for new USA deaths. I simply subtract the numbers from the day before. I am sure some spikes and dips are due to batches being reported on different days than the actual fatalities.

I am much more interested in what is going on day by day that what the cumulative total is.

On 6-11-2020 I began tabulating Arizona daily fatalities

3-17-2020	199584   7975   6203   107  -- -- --
3-18-2020	219583   8928   8865   138  -- -- 31
3-19-2020	246583  10171  13925   194  -- -- 64
3-20-2020	270718  11365  17333   218  -- -- 24
3-21-2020	287379  11951  19459   263  -- -- 45
3-22-2020	343015  14721  33711   412  -- -- 149
3-23-2020	374822  16379  42691   565  -- -- 153
3-24-2020	--				  207
3-25-2020	--				  207
3-26-2020	526913  23719  81977  1186  -- --    207
3-27-2020	597008  27368 105016  1697  -- --    511
3-28-2020	667413  30830 123495  2210  -- --    513
3-29-2020	726187  33951 140458  2480  919  17  270
3-30-2020	784784  37652 160326  2971 1157  20  491
3-31-2020	864690  42233 188578  4059 1289  24  1088
4-1-2020	937952  47064 214253  4982 1413  29  923
4-2-2020       1015862  53018 240529  5810 1598  32  828
4-3-2020       1119489  59243 277621  7402 1769  41  1592
4-4-2020       1203141  64980 311357  8741 2019  52  1339
4-5-2020       1274588  69448 336673  9616 2269  64  875
4-6-2020       1347250  74694 367004 10896 2456  65  1280
4-7-2020	--
4-8-2020       1520233  88572 435128 14795 2726  80
4-9-2020       1607567  95811 468895 16697 3018  89
4-10-2020      1703357 102955 502876 18747 3112  97
4-11-2020      1783439 109070 533475 20577 3393 108
4-12-2020      1862650 114921 560532 22210 3539 115
4-13-2020      1925159 119619 586377 23638 3702 122  1428
4-14-2020      2000724 130415 613886 ----- 3806 131
4-15-2020      2075528 134286 641813 28443 3962 142
4-16-2020      2178149 145329 675640 34522 4234 150  6079
4-17-2020	--
4-18-2020	--
4-19-2020      2394291 164938 755533 40461 4929 184
4-20-2020	--
4-21-2020      2510626 171686  793505 42604 5068 191
4-22-2020      2635298 182361  848994 47676 5473 231
4-23-2020      2662118 183770  887000 50162 5769 249  2486
4-24-2020      2774766 194434  894034 50919 5772 249   --
4-25-2020      2920905 203269  960651 54256 6280 273  3337
4-26-2020	--
4-27-2020	--
4-28-2020      3080000 214000 1030000 58033 6716 275
4-29-2020	-				      2914
4-30-2020      3308290 234108 1095210 63861 7655 320  2914
5-1-2020	--
5-2-2020	--
5-3-2020	--
5-4-2020       3620522 250789 1200874 69121  8919 362
5-5-2020       3710380 256920 1229919 71670  9305 395  2549
5-6-2020       3822951 265084 1263183 74807  9707 426  3137
5-7-2020       3915636 270683 1292623 76928  9945 450  2121
5-8-2020       4009854 275934 1321065 78577 10526 517  1649
5-9-2020	--				       1324
5-10-2020	--				       1324
5-11-2020	--				       1324
5-12-2020	--				       1324
5-13-2020      4429218 298165 1430348 85197 12176 594  1324
5-14-2020	--				       1588
5-15-2020      4616781 307959 1481661 88373 13169 651  1588
5-16-2020      4716971 312385 1507864 89596 13631 679  1223
5-17-2020	--				       1190
5-18-2020      4888021 319960 1550197 91976 14170 686  1190
5-19-2020      4971500 324155 1567289 93343 14566 704  1367
5-20-2020      5076678 329042 1578434 93519 14897 747   176
5-21-2020      5188847 334058 1608084 95087 15315 763  1568
5-22-2020	--				        979
5-23-2020	--				        979
5-24-2020      5498207 346685 1677436  98024 16339 801  979
5-25-2020	--				       1069
5-26-2020      5678019 351667 1715789 100163 16783 807 1070
5-27-2020	--				       1114
5-28-2020      5867318 360404 1746585 102391 17763 857 1114
5-29-2020      6026091 366415 1793263 104539 18465 885 2148
5-30-2020	--				       919
5-31-2020	--				       919
6-1-2020	--				       919
6-2-2020	--				       919
6-3-2020	--				       919
6-4-2020       6664436 391081 1920406 110050 22753  996  919
6-5-2020       6809074 396902 1952347 111307 24332 1012 1257
6-6-2020       6946991 400978 1986646 112055 25451 1042  748
6-7-2020	--				         230
6-8-2020       7126058 406838 2009016 112514 26989 1051  230
6-9-2020	--				         880
6-10-2020      7363503 414588 2049121 114273 28296 1076  880
6-11-2020      7515286 420341 2071491 115291 29852 1101 1018 25
6-12-2020	--				         830 27
6-13-2020      7796731 429734 2123102 116952 33039 1156  830 28
6-14-2020	--				         465 21
6-15-2020      8031407 436297 2165872 117883 35706 1191  466 20
6-16-2020	--				        1015 24
6-17-2020      8381903 450198 2232070 119914 40924 1239 1016 24
6-18-2020	--				         521 26
6-19-2020	--				         521 26
6-20-2020	--				         521 27
6-21-2020      8949882 467350 2330999 121999 50127 1346  521 27
6-22-2020       --					 341  2
6-23-2020      9228977 475145 2390267 122681 54599 1351  341  3
6-24-2020       --					 1096 46
6-25-2020       --					 1096 46
6-26-2020       --					 1096 46
6-27-2020       --					 1096 46
6-28-2020     10129955 502208 2597383 128161 70124 1580  1096 46
6-29-2020     10408433 508078 2681811 128783 76987 1594  622  14
6-30-2020       --					 875 54
7-1-2020        --					 875 54
7-2-2020      10969143 523138 2832897 131407 87425 1757	 875 55
7-3-2020                                                 694 53
7-4-2020                                                 694 53
  .....
  .....
7-14-2020                                                694 53
7-15-2020                                                694 53
7-16-2020     13944232 592631 3695025 141118 134613 2492 694 53
7-17-2020     14176006 598446 3766605 141976 138523 2583 858 91
7-17-2020     ....                                       928 88
7-17-2020     ....                                       928 88
7-17-2020     ....                                       928 88
7-17-2020     ....                                       928 88
7-17-2020     ....                                       928 88
7-17-2020     ....                                       928 88
7-17-2020     ....                                       928 88
7-25-2020     16189592 647594 4315659 149394 160041 3286 928 88
7-26-2020     16394160 651504 4365935 149772 162014 3305 378 19 (weekend)
7-27-2020     16620129 655713 4429895 150393 163827 3305 621  0 (weekend)
7-28-2020     16874095 662085 4494742 152145 165934 3408 1752 103
7-29-2020                                                1570 109
7-30-2020     17476105 676759 4634985 155285 170798 3626 1570 109
7-31-2020     17745663 682197 4705884 156747 174010 3694 1462 68
8-1-2020                                                 787  37
8-2-2020      18215360 692272 4811538 158320 178467 3765 787  37 (weekend)
8-4-2020      18691689 703374 4918419 160290 180505 3845 1970 80
8-5-2020      18956626 710038 4973310 161581 182203 3932 1291 87
8-6-2020                                                 1225 74
8-7-2020      19513245 722764 5092886 164032 185053 4081 1226 75
8-8-2020                                                 669  29
8-9-2020                                                 669  29
8-10-2020                                                669  30
8-11-2020     20358137 741237 5263777 166707 188737 4199 669  30
8-12-2020     20786240 751553 5360023 169124 189443 4347 2417 148
8-13-2020                                                1122 38
8-14-2020     21302927 761693 5469351 171369 191721 4423 1123 38
8-15-2020                                                879  41
8-16-2020     21826447 773072 5566632 173128 193537 4506 880  42 (weekend)
8-17-2020     22036529 776862 5612011 173716 194005 4506 588  0
8-18-2020                                                1226 64
8-19-2020     22533576 789366 5694822 176168 195557 4634 1226 64
8-20-2020                                                1039 27
8-21-2020                                                1039 27
8-22-2020                                                1039 27
8-23-2020                                                1039 27
8-24-2020                                                1039 27
8-25-2020     24051410 823322 5955728 182404 199273 4792 1039 27
8-26-2020                                                963 38
8-27-2020                                                963 38
8-28-2020                                                963 38
8-29-2020                                                963 38
8-30-2020                                                963 38
8-31-2020                                                963 38
9-1-2020                                                 963 38
9-2-2020                                                 963 38
9-3-2020                                                 963 38
9-4-2020      26772260 878068 6396496 192032 204681 5171 963 38
9-5-2020                                                 673 17 
9-6-2020                                                 673 17 (weekend)
9-7-2020                                                 673 17
9-8-2020                                                 673 17
9-9-2020                                                 673 17
9-10-2020     28250275 911716 6581605 196069 207002 5273 673 17
9-11-2020                                                805 14
9-11-2020                                                805 14
9-11-2020                                                805 14
9-11-2020                                                805 14
9-15-2020     29697086 938062 6785830 200098 209209 5344 805 14
 ...							 761 31
 ...							 761 31
9-27-2020     33128179 999721  7290914 209220 216826 5622 761 31
 ...							  786 10
 ...							  786 10
 ...							  786 10
10-1-2020                                                 786 10
 ...							  786 10
 ...							  786 10
 ...							  786 10
 ...							  786 10
 ...							  786 10
 ...							  786 10
 ...							  786 10
10-9-2020     37110987 1072712 7894478 218648 224084 5746 786 10
 ... 							  785 9
 ... 							  785 9
10-30-2020    45890077 1193200 9314298 235142 244045 5934 785 9
11-4-2020     48358560 1229080 9776431 239580 250633 6059 888 25
11-22-2020   58671514 1389246 12463308 261885 295334 6457 1239 22
11-24-2020   59699426 1405329 12780938 263799 302324 6464 957 4
12-3-2020    65057682 1503292 14326333 280115 340979 6739 1632 27
12-4-2020    65727447 1515436 14545884 283030 346421 6821 2915 82 (all time high, in the news)
12-5-2020    66847833 1534344 14983425 287825 358900 6925 4795 104
12-7-2020    67938995 1550263 15369046 290443 365843 6950 1309 12
12-22-2020   78292611 1722019 18637612 330087 467215 8125 2643 78
12-23-2020   78956432 1735274 18858583 333358 473273 8179 3271 54
12-24-2020   79729121 1749340 19111326 337066 480319 8294 3708 115
12-28-2020   81540231 1779008 19714429 342556 494337 8427 1372 33
1-9-2021     89529381 1925161 22481008 378462 596251 9938 2992 126
The numbers are cases and fatalities, first world wide, then for the USA only, then for Arizona.

Compare to other causes of death

Is Covid-19 being hyped? The only way to say is to compare the statistics to other causes of death. It is also important to consider that we simply won't know until it is all over. The following article gives numbers for the leading causes of death in the USA. Deaths due to the top 3 are (per year in the USA) :
Heart Disease -- 635,260 deaths per year in the USA
Cancer        -- 606,520 deaths per year in the USA
Accidents     -- 161,374 deaths per year in the USA (includes traffic)
Strokes       -- 142,142 deaths per year in the USA
Covid-19      -- 173,128 deaths as of 8-16-2020
Flu and Pneumonia 51,537 deaths
So Covid-19 shows little chance of being a greater issue than heart disease or cancer. Which is not really saying much given that over half a million die each year from each. We see people everywhere wearing masks, but we don't see people out running to stay in shape and taking care with their diets to avoid heart disease, but that is looking at the other side of the coin. Certainly worth pondering though.

At present, Covid 19 as a cause of death is of the same order as accidents and strokes. Of course the year isn't over yet, and a death from any cause is nothing to brush aside. The point however is that death is a reality with or without Covid-19 and this new virus is simply one more thing to add to a long list of possible causes. At least you could view it that way if you are well adjusted to the reality of dying.

There is little reason to freak out over the possibility of dying from Covid-19 any more than worrying about being killed in some kind of accident.

Given the roughly 1000/day fatality rate for Covid-19, a prediction would be that we will end the year 2020 with 260,000 Covid-19 fatalities.

The USA has a population of 328 million. If at year end, we have lost 250,000 people, that is 0.07 percent of the population. 1 person out of every 1428.

No Symptoms

About 40 percent of those infected with the virus have no symptoms. Given this, there is about a 0.65 percent "infection fatality ratio". Also, it is estimated that half of Covid transmission happens "before people get sick", though this estimate is poorly substantiated.

Masks

There is an increasing (and false) perception that masks protect those wearing them. This is a classic example of "wishful thinking" since that is what people would very much like to believe. But it isn't true -- unless you are wearing a mask with a valve and a media designed to filter air. These are not widely available and should be reserved for use by front line medical workers and such people. The home sewn cloth masks that are now nearly ubiquitous are "breath diverting devices". Their purpose is to slow and divert the exhalation of the person wearing the mask to reduce how far it spreads, not to protect the wearer.

Old folks

On July 25, 2020 and article reported that of the fatalities in Arizona, people aged 65 and older made up 2,388 of the 3,286 deaths, or 73%.

Here is a breakdown from another article. Numbers are deaths / cases.

Dramatic demonstration that the 65 and over crowd handles the virus poorly.

Detection

The following somewhat weird comments were relayed to me, allegedly from a nurse. I have never had a "cold nose", but I have certainly had so called "colds".

The simplest way to distinguish Coronavirus from a Common Cold is that the COVID-19 infection does not cause a cold nose or cough with cold, but it does create a dry and rough cough. The virus is typically first installed in the throat causing inflammation and a feeling of dryness. This symptom can last between 3 and 4 days. The virus typically then travels through the moisture present in the airways, goes down to the trachea and installs in the lungs, causing pneumonia that lasts about 5 or 6 days. Pneumonia manifests with a high fever and difficulty breathing. The Common Cold is not accompanied, but there may be a choking sensation. In this case, the doctor should be called immediately.

Experts suggest doing this simple verification every morning: Breathe in deeply and hold your breath for 10 seconds. If this can be done without coughing, without difficulty, this shows that there is no fibrosis in the lungs, indicating the absence of infection. It is recommended to do this control every morning to help detect infection.

People often cite "flu like symptoms", whatever in the world that is supposed to mean. Typical symptoms are fever, headache, sore throat, dry cough, loss of taste and smell.

Prevention

Look up "fomites" online. The following is from Wikipedia:

In addition to objects in hospital settings, other common fomites for humans are cups, spoons, pencils, bath faucet handles, toilet flush levers, door knobs, light switches, handrails, elevator buttons, television remote controls, pens, touch screens, common-use phones, keyboards, and computer mice, coffeepot handles, countertops, and any other items that may be frequently touched by different people and infrequently cleaned.

Researchers have discovered that smooth (non-porous) surfaces like door knobs transmit bacteria and viruses better than porous materials like paper money because porous, especially fibrous, materials absorb and trap the contagion, making it harder to contract through simple touch

The following is from another source:

The virus hates heat and dies if it is exposed to temperatures greater than 80°F (27°C). Therefore hot drinks such as infusions, broths or simply hot water should be consumed abundantly during the day. These hot liquids kill the virus and are easy to ingest.
Avoid drinking ice water or drinks with ice cubes.

Ensure that your mouth and throat are always wet, never DRY. You should drink a sip of water at least every 15 minutes. WHY? Even when the virus enters water or other liquids through the mouth, it will get flushed through the oesophagus directly into the stomach where gastric acids destroy the virus. If there is not enough water, the virus can pass into the trachea and from there to the lungs, where it is very dangerous.

For those who can, sunbathe. The Sun's UV rays kill the virus and the vitamin D is good for you.

The Coronavirus has a large size (diameter of 400-500 nanometers) so face masks can stop it, no special face masks are needed in daily life. If an infected person sneezes near us, stay 10 feet (3.3 meters) away to allow the virus fall to the ground and prevent it from falling on you. When the virus is on hard surfaces, it survives about 12 hours, therefore when hard surfaces such as doors, appliances, railings, etc. are touched, hands should be washed thoroughly and/or disinfected with alcoholic gel The virus can live nested in clothes and tissues between 6 and 12 hours. Common detergents can kill it. Things that cannot be washed should be exposed to the Sun and the virus will die. The transmission of the virus usually occurs by direct infection, touching fabrics, tissues or materials on which the virus is present.

Washing your hands is essential. The virus survives on our hands for only about 10 minutes. In that time many things can happen, rubbing the eyes, touching the nose or lips. This allows the virus to enter your throat. Therefore, for your good and the good of all, wash your hands very often and disinfect them. You can gargle with disinfectant solutions (i.e. Listerine or Hydrogen Peroxide) that eliminate or minimize the amount of virus that can enter the throat. Doing so removes the virus before it goes down to the trachea and then to the lungs.

Disinfect things touched often: cellphone, keyboard, mouse, car steering wheel, door handles, etc

How the virus works

The virus itself is "SARS Cov-2", the disease it causes is Covid-19. This is a respiratory virus. The virus is transmitted by airborn droplets and by contact. The virus must be introduced into the trachea to cause infection. The virus binds to the ACE enzyme which is part of type II pneumatocyte cells in the lungs. (The lung has type I, which do gas exchange, and type II which produce surfactants). When a type II pneumatocyte dies, it triggers an inflammatory response. If this response is huge and goes out of control, the Alveoli fill with fluid. This is pneumonia. A lung full of fluid cannot exchange gases. Victims begin to breath rapidly and "tire out" trying to maintain this, or organ failure and sepsis due to lack of oxygen leads to death.

In 80 percent of people, the disease causes "mild" symptoms, where "mild" is defined as not requiring hospitalization. The other 20 percent will need ICU or a respirator.

It is said that the first week with the virus does not seems serious. During the second week, things either begin to improve or get much worse. So, don't be fooled by the first week.

70 percent of those who need ICU are obese or morbidly obese, with other comorbidities.

The Spanish Flu (1918)

When you read about this, you realize this was like no "flu" you and I have ever known.

Take the "normal" 2018-2019 flu season. In the US, 35.5 million got sick with the flu, 16.5 million of those sought medical care, 409,600 were hospitalized, and 34,200 died. This is a fatality rate of close to 0.1 percent among those who were infected. Similar to the traffic fatality rate.

In 1918, about 1/3 of the worlds population were infected (about 500 million people). There were at least 10 million deaths worldwide (about 2 percent of those infected). 675,000 died in the US.

My comments - most recent at the top

May 26

For some unexplainable reason, Florida is in the news for monkeying with how it reports Covid-19 statistics. First China, now Florida -- what next. There has been no explosion yet after widespread easing of government restrictions. A person has to wonder if predictions about how serious this thing is have been overstated. Clearly nobody really knows, and data from China that might have been our best early predictor is worse than useless.

But there is a lot of discussion on why the models were wrong. Models predicted that 60 percent of Americans would be infected and 1.6 million would die over an 18 month period. We are only 2 months into those 18 months, and right now about 1000 people are dying daily. It does seem that the progress of the virus is not as aggressive as was predicted. One aspect of this that is discussed is that the CFR (case fatality rate) may be significantly higher than the IFR (infection fatality rate). We know the CFR and some models assume that the IFR was effectively the same as the CFR, but apparently this is not so. Many people are infected and have trivial symptoms and may not even be confirmed or reported. There seems to be significant differences in how the virus affects different people. A lot of the statistics are based on those that the virus hits hard and who seek medical care.

It is actually good news of course if the models were wrong and drastically overestimated the seriousness of the virus.

May 20

No big news. There are somewhat over 1000 deaths per day in the United States, with little sign that we have reached a peak, never mind passed through it. Some models are predicting a peak sometime in July.

The following article suggests that close groups indoors are ideal for spread of the disease (such as concerts, church services, meetings, workplaces) whereas sparse outdoor activities pose minimal risk. This seems just like common sense for something that is spread via the respiratory system. As the article says: "“Clearly there is a much higher risk in enclosed spaces than outside.” It also notes that 10 percent of the cases account for 80 percent of the spread. The article also suggests that "“Maybe slow, gentle breathing is not a risk factor, but heavy, deep, or rapid breathing and shouting is.”

May 6

While putting clean papers in my bird cages, I ran into an article that claimed that 105 people in America die from suicide every day. Checking online, I see the claim of 123 people per day and 44,965 per year. These are interesting numbers. Right now we are seeing 2500 people dying every day due to Covid-19.

Another number to ponder is the "normal" death rate. 2,813,503 people die every year in America. Nearly 3 million. 863.8 deaths per 100,000 (i.e. 0.86 percent). 7700 people every day. Heart disease is the big one at 647,457 deaths per year (1774 deaths per day).

April 25

The world has not come to an end, but a lot of businesses are in trouble and people have lost their jobs. I was doing some searches to see if the oft quoted 4 percent fatality rate still seems valid now that we have (sad to say) a lot more data. As always the answer is, "it depends". In summary, antibody testing is showing that a lot more people have been infected with Covid-19 that have been officially counted. This is good news. It means a lot of people have been infected and had either no symptoms or such mild systems that they never sought any kind of care that would cause them to be tested and added to the statistics. What we have been looking at so far is the CFR (the case fatality rate), which is always much higher than the IFR (infection fatality rate). In fact, it is possible that the IFR for Covid-19 may be more like 0.1 or 0.2 percent, which is essentially the same as the flu.

April 16

Is there any point to casting blame amid all of this? It certainly should not be among our top priorities, but China has been exhibiting particularly reprehensible behavior. And for whatever reason the WHO seems to stand staunchly beside them while they churn our lies.

April 15

More about China. This may sound like (and perhaps will boil down to) conspiracy theory, but there is evidence that the virus was a human engineered product that escaped from a research lab. Wuhan, China hosts a virology lab that is the equivalent of Fort Detrick in the USA, albeit more public. A researcher there (Shi Zhengli) has been publishing papers and giving conference talks about bat derived coronaviruses. Alarmingly, papers have been published about modifying these viruses to be transmitted cross-species. One of the latest papers discussed performing experiments to verify they were infectious to primates.

Can anyone see the potential for disaster here?

Interestingly, Wuhan is not the area where the bats themselves are found, they are found in more subtropical areas to the south. (Near Nanning in Yunnan). This draws suspicion to the lab itself as a possible source for the outbreak. As one article says:
It is a remarkable coincidence that the Wuhan Institute of Virology was researching Ebola and SARS-associated coronaviruses in bats before the pandemic outbreak, and that in the month when Wuhan doctors were treating the first patients of COVID-19, the institute announced in a hiring notice that “a large number of new bat and rodent new viruses have been discovered and identified.”

April 12

Interestingly (or perhaps ominously, or unsurprisingly), the Chinese central government is now asserting control over publication of scientific research about the virus. Censorship by any other name -- but the nature of a totalitarian regime. They are apparently uncomfortable about China being the source of the virus, and want to have the liberty to spin their own tale.

In late December, Wuhan reported the first cases of the coronavirus, linked by authorities to a seafood market in the city. Scientists in China and the West have said the virus is likely to have originated in bats and jumped to humans from an intermediate host -- just like its cousin that caused the SARS epidemic in 2002 and 2003.

April 10

The USA is now leading the world in number of cases and fatalities. Nobody believes the numbers from China anymore, they could mean anything.

March 23

The most notable thing is the explosive growth in Italy. Italy now has 6000 fatalities, as compared to 3000 in China. This seems peculiar, and makes me wonder about the reliability of the data we are getting from China.

In a recent phone call, a friend who has been talking to some doctor friends emphasized to me the highly contagious nature of this virus. He cautioned me not to take it lightly and to do all I can to avoid exposure, especially at my age of 65+ citing an 8 percent mortality rate.

Fatalities in the US were 153 over the last 24 hours, pushing past my 100 per day due to traffic events yardstick. New York is still the hot spot in the US.

There is talk in the US about "not letting the cure be worse than the disease", which is something I have been saying for some time. We may rethink this once we see how bad the disease is. Ultimately it is all about tradeoffs. This discussion is certain to become polarized and heated.

March 21 ?

We expect the growth to be geometric. I have heard the claim that the doubling time is every 3 to 3.5 days. To me, it looks more like 6 days from the data above. Some of this "inhibited growth" may be due to stay-at-home measures that are actually proving effective.

The US population is about 330 million. The Covid-19 mortality rate is 4 percent. Epidemiologists estimate 60-80 percent of the population will be exposed to (and presumably contract) the virus. Call this 70 percent. Using these numbers, a quick calculation would predict about 9 million fatalities in the US once the virus has run its course.

March 19

At the time this sentence is being written approximately 200 people (in the US) have lost their lives due to the Covid-19 virus. To put this in perspective, in 2019, an estimated 38,800 people lost their lives to car crashes – a 2% decline from 2018 (39,404 deaths). This is very close to 100 traffic fatalities per day across the United States. Death in either case is tragic, but the comparison is worth making for any number of reasons. As of March 19, we see about 24 people per day dying from the Covid-19 virus in the US. However, if this thing behaves as we expect it to, we will see exponential growth.
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Tom's Doomsday Resources / tom@mmto.org