Here are daily totals from the Ncov2019.live site. The numbers are cases and fatalities, first world wide, then for the USA only. On 3-29-2020 I added the same pair of columns for Arizona.
3-17-2020 199584 7975 6203 107 3-18-2020 219583 8928 8865 138 3-19-2020 246583 10171 13925 194 3-20-2020 270718 11365 17333 218 3-21-2020 287379 11951 19459 263 3-22-2020 343015 14721 33711 412 3-23-2020 374822 16379 42691 565 3-24-2020 -- 3-25-2020 -- 3-26-2020 526913 23719 81977 1186 3-27-2020 597008 27368 105016 1697 3-28-2020 667413 30830 123495 2210 3-29-2020 726187 33951 140458 2480 919 17 3-30-2020 784784 37652 160326 2971 1157 20 3-31-2020 864690 42233 188578 4059 1289 24 4-1-2020 937952 47064 214253 4982 1413 29 4-2-2020 1015862 53018 240529 5810 1598 32We expect the growth to be geometric. I have heard the claim that the doubling time is every 3 to 3.5 days. To me, it looks more like 6 days from the data above. Some of this "inhibited growth" may be due to stay-at-home measures that are actually proving effective.
The US population is about 330 million. The Covid-19 mortality rate is 4 percent. Epidemiologists estimate 60-80 percent of the population will be exposed to (and presumably contract) the virus. Call this 70 percent. Based on this, we can predict about 9 million fatalities in the US once the virus has run its course.
Experts suggest doing this simple verification every morning: Breathe in deeply and hold your breath for 10 seconds. If this can be done without coughing, without difficulty, this shows that there is no fibrosis in the lungs, indicating the absence of infection. It is recommended to do this control every morning to help detect infection.
Ensure that your mouth and throat are always wet, never DRY. You should drink a sip of water at least every 15 minutes. WHY? Even when the virus enters water or other liquids through the mouth, it will get flushed through the oesophagus directly into the stomach where gastric acids destroy the virus. If there is not enough water, the virus can pass into the trachea and from there to the lungs, where it is very dangerous.
For those who can, sunbathe. The Sun's UV rays kill the virus and the vitamin D is good for you.
The Coronavirus has a large size (diameter of 400-500 nanometers) so face masks can stop it, no special face masks are needed in daily life. If an infected person sneezes near us, stay 10 feet (3.3 meters) away to allow the virus fall to the ground and prevent it from falling on you. When the virus is on hard surfaces, it survives about 12 hours, therefore when hard surfaces such as doors, appliances, railings, etc. are touched, hands should be washed thoroughly and/or disinfected with alcoholic gel The virus can live nested in clothes and tissues between 6 and 12 hours. Common detergents can kill it. Things that cannot be washed should be exposed to the Sun and the virus will die. The transmission of the virus usually occurs by direct infection, touching fabrics, tissues or materials on which the virus is present.
Washing your hands is essential. The virus survives on our hands for only about 10 minutes. In that time many things can happen, rubbing the eyes, touching the nose or lips. This allows the virus to enter your throat. Therefore, for your good and the good of all, wash your hands very often and disinfect them. You can gargle with disinfectant solutions (i.e. Listerine or Hydrogen Peroxide) that eliminate or minimize the amount of virus that can enter the throat. Doing so removes the virus before it goes down to the trachea and then to the lungs.
Disinfect things touched often: cellphone, keyboard, mouse, car steering wheel, door handles, etc
In 80 percent of people, the disease causes "mild" symptoms, where "mild" is defined as not requiring hospitalization. The other 20 percent will need ICU or a respirator.
70 percent of those who need ICU are obese or morbidly obese, with other comorbidities.
In 1918, about 1/3 of the worlds population were infected (about 500 million people). There were at least 10 million deaths worldwide (about 2 percent of those infected). 675,000 died in the US.
In a recent phone call, a friend who has been talking to some doctor friends emphasized to me the highly contagious nature of this virus. He cautioned me not to take it lightly and to do all I can to avoid exposure, especially at my age of 65+ citing an 8 percent mortality rate.
Fatalities in the US were 153 over the last 24 hours, pushing past my 100 per day due to traffic events yardstick. New York is still the hot spot in the US.
There is talk in the US about "not letting the cure be worse than the disease", which is something I have been saying for some time. We may rethink this once we see how bad the disease is. Ultimately it is all about tradeoffs. This discussion is certain to become polarized and heated.
Tom's Doomsday Resources / email@example.com