I began this page back in March of 2020 as a place to collect my own notes and information. It is now over a year later and about half of the population is vaccinated, and the delta variant is punishing those who neglected to do so.
The numbers are cases and fatalities, first world wide, then for the USA only, then for Arizona. On 3-29-2020 I added the same pair of columns for Arizona.
The main thing I watch is the daily US fatalities. Sometimes (rarely) the site is down and I resort to getting data elsewhere, typically the John Hopkins University site. A Google search on "arizona coronavirus" gives a nice summary.
On 5-13-2020 I added a column for new USA deaths. I simply subtract the numbers from the day before. I am sure some spikes and dips are due to batches being reported on different days than the actual fatalities.
I am much more interested in what is going on day by day that what the cumulative total is.
On 6-11-2020 I began tabulating Arizona daily fatalities
3-17-2020 199584 7975 6203 107 -- -- -- 3-18-2020 219583 8928 8865 138 -- -- 31 3-19-2020 246583 10171 13925 194 -- -- 64 3-20-2020 270718 11365 17333 218 -- -- 24 3-21-2020 287379 11951 19459 263 -- -- 45 3-22-2020 343015 14721 33711 412 -- -- 149 3-23-2020 374822 16379 42691 565 -- -- 153 3-24-2020 -- 207 3-25-2020 -- 207 3-26-2020 526913 23719 81977 1186 -- -- 207 3-27-2020 597008 27368 105016 1697 -- -- 511 3-28-2020 667413 30830 123495 2210 -- -- 513 3-29-2020 726187 33951 140458 2480 919 17 270 3-30-2020 784784 37652 160326 2971 1157 20 491 3-31-2020 864690 42233 188578 4059 1289 24 1088 4-1-2020 937952 47064 214253 4982 1413 29 923 4-2-2020 1015862 53018 240529 5810 1598 32 828 4-3-2020 1119489 59243 277621 7402 1769 41 1592 4-4-2020 1203141 64980 311357 8741 2019 52 1339 4-5-2020 1274588 69448 336673 9616 2269 64 875 4-6-2020 1347250 74694 367004 10896 2456 65 1280 4-7-2020 -- 4-8-2020 1520233 88572 435128 14795 2726 80 4-9-2020 1607567 95811 468895 16697 3018 89 4-10-2020 1703357 102955 502876 18747 3112 97 4-11-2020 1783439 109070 533475 20577 3393 108 4-12-2020 1862650 114921 560532 22210 3539 115 4-13-2020 1925159 119619 586377 23638 3702 122 1428 4-14-2020 2000724 130415 613886 ----- 3806 131 4-15-2020 2075528 134286 641813 28443 3962 142 4-16-2020 2178149 145329 675640 34522 4234 150 6079 4-17-2020 -- 4-18-2020 -- 4-19-2020 2394291 164938 755533 40461 4929 184 4-20-2020 -- 4-21-2020 2510626 171686 793505 42604 5068 191 4-22-2020 2635298 182361 848994 47676 5473 231 4-23-2020 2662118 183770 887000 50162 5769 249 2486 4-24-2020 2774766 194434 894034 50919 5772 249 -- 4-25-2020 2920905 203269 960651 54256 6280 273 3337 4-26-2020 -- 4-27-2020 -- 4-28-2020 3080000 214000 1030000 58033 6716 275 4-29-2020 - 2914 4-30-2020 3308290 234108 1095210 63861 7655 320 2914 5-1-2020 -- 5-2-2020 -- 5-3-2020 -- 5-4-2020 3620522 250789 1200874 69121 8919 362 5-5-2020 3710380 256920 1229919 71670 9305 395 2549 5-6-2020 3822951 265084 1263183 74807 9707 426 3137 5-7-2020 3915636 270683 1292623 76928 9945 450 2121 5-8-2020 4009854 275934 1321065 78577 10526 517 1649 5-9-2020 -- 1324 5-10-2020 -- 1324 5-11-2020 -- 1324 5-12-2020 -- 1324 5-13-2020 4429218 298165 1430348 85197 12176 594 1324 5-14-2020 -- 1588 5-15-2020 4616781 307959 1481661 88373 13169 651 1588 5-16-2020 4716971 312385 1507864 89596 13631 679 1223 5-17-2020 -- 1190 5-18-2020 4888021 319960 1550197 91976 14170 686 1190 5-19-2020 4971500 324155 1567289 93343 14566 704 1367 5-20-2020 5076678 329042 1578434 93519 14897 747 176 5-21-2020 5188847 334058 1608084 95087 15315 763 1568 5-22-2020 -- 979 5-23-2020 -- 979 5-24-2020 5498207 346685 1677436 98024 16339 801 979 5-25-2020 -- 1069 5-26-2020 5678019 351667 1715789 100163 16783 807 1070 5-27-2020 -- 1114 5-28-2020 5867318 360404 1746585 102391 17763 857 1114 5-29-2020 6026091 366415 1793263 104539 18465 885 2148 5-30-2020 -- 919 5-31-2020 -- 919 6-1-2020 -- 919 6-2-2020 -- 919 6-3-2020 -- 919 6-4-2020 6664436 391081 1920406 110050 22753 996 919 6-5-2020 6809074 396902 1952347 111307 24332 1012 1257 6-6-2020 6946991 400978 1986646 112055 25451 1042 748 6-7-2020 -- 230 6-8-2020 7126058 406838 2009016 112514 26989 1051 230 6-9-2020 -- 880 6-10-2020 7363503 414588 2049121 114273 28296 1076 880 6-11-2020 7515286 420341 2071491 115291 29852 1101 1018 25 6-12-2020 -- 830 27 6-13-2020 7796731 429734 2123102 116952 33039 1156 830 28 6-14-2020 -- 465 21 6-15-2020 8031407 436297 2165872 117883 35706 1191 466 20 6-16-2020 -- 1015 24 6-17-2020 8381903 450198 2232070 119914 40924 1239 1016 24 6-18-2020 -- 521 26 6-19-2020 -- 521 26 6-20-2020 -- 521 27 6-21-2020 8949882 467350 2330999 121999 50127 1346 521 27 6-22-2020 -- 341 2 6-23-2020 9228977 475145 2390267 122681 54599 1351 341 3 6-24-2020 -- 1096 46 6-25-2020 -- 1096 46 6-26-2020 -- 1096 46 6-27-2020 -- 1096 46 6-28-2020 10129955 502208 2597383 128161 70124 1580 1096 46 6-29-2020 10408433 508078 2681811 128783 76987 1594 622 14 6-30-2020 -- 875 54 7-1-2020 -- 875 54 7-2-2020 10969143 523138 2832897 131407 87425 1757 875 55 7-3-2020 694 53 7-4-2020 694 53 ..... ..... 7-14-2020 694 53 7-15-2020 694 53 7-16-2020 13944232 592631 3695025 141118 134613 2492 694 53 7-17-2020 14176006 598446 3766605 141976 138523 2583 858 91 7-17-2020 .... 928 88 7-17-2020 .... 928 88 7-17-2020 .... 928 88 7-17-2020 .... 928 88 7-17-2020 .... 928 88 7-17-2020 .... 928 88 7-17-2020 .... 928 88 7-25-2020 16189592 647594 4315659 149394 160041 3286 928 88 7-26-2020 16394160 651504 4365935 149772 162014 3305 378 19 (weekend) 7-27-2020 16620129 655713 4429895 150393 163827 3305 621 0 (weekend) 7-28-2020 16874095 662085 4494742 152145 165934 3408 1752 103 7-29-2020 1570 109 7-30-2020 17476105 676759 4634985 155285 170798 3626 1570 109 7-31-2020 17745663 682197 4705884 156747 174010 3694 1462 68 8-1-2020 787 37 8-2-2020 18215360 692272 4811538 158320 178467 3765 787 37 (weekend) 8-4-2020 18691689 703374 4918419 160290 180505 3845 1970 80 8-5-2020 18956626 710038 4973310 161581 182203 3932 1291 87 8-6-2020 1225 74 8-7-2020 19513245 722764 5092886 164032 185053 4081 1226 75 8-8-2020 669 29 8-9-2020 669 29 8-10-2020 669 30 8-11-2020 20358137 741237 5263777 166707 188737 4199 669 30 8-12-2020 20786240 751553 5360023 169124 189443 4347 2417 148 8-13-2020 1122 38 8-14-2020 21302927 761693 5469351 171369 191721 4423 1123 38 8-15-2020 879 41 8-16-2020 21826447 773072 5566632 173128 193537 4506 880 42 (weekend) 8-17-2020 22036529 776862 5612011 173716 194005 4506 588 0 8-18-2020 1226 64 8-19-2020 22533576 789366 5694822 176168 195557 4634 1226 64 8-20-2020 1039 27 8-21-2020 1039 27 8-22-2020 1039 27 8-23-2020 1039 27 8-24-2020 1039 27 8-25-2020 24051410 823322 5955728 182404 199273 4792 1039 27 8-26-2020 963 38 8-27-2020 963 38 8-28-2020 963 38 8-29-2020 963 38 8-30-2020 963 38 8-31-2020 963 38 9-1-2020 963 38 9-2-2020 963 38 9-3-2020 963 38 9-4-2020 26772260 878068 6396496 192032 204681 5171 963 38 9-5-2020 673 17 9-6-2020 673 17 (weekend) 9-7-2020 673 17 9-8-2020 673 17 9-9-2020 673 17 9-10-2020 28250275 911716 6581605 196069 207002 5273 673 17 9-11-2020 805 14 9-11-2020 805 14 9-11-2020 805 14 9-11-2020 805 14 9-15-2020 29697086 938062 6785830 200098 209209 5344 805 14 ... 761 31 ... 761 31 9-27-2020 33128179 999721 7290914 209220 216826 5622 761 31 ... 786 10 ... 786 10 ... 786 10 10-1-2020 786 10 ... 786 10 ... 786 10 ... 786 10 ... 786 10 ... 786 10 ... 786 10 ... 786 10 10-9-2020 37110987 1072712 7894478 218648 224084 5746 786 10 ... 785 9 ... 785 9 10-30-2020 45890077 1193200 9314298 235142 244045 5934 785 9 11-4-2020 48358560 1229080 9776431 239580 250633 6059 888 25 11-22-2020 58671514 1389246 12463308 261885 295334 6457 1239 22 11-24-2020 59699426 1405329 12780938 263799 302324 6464 957 4 12-3-2020 65057682 1503292 14326333 280115 340979 6739 1632 27 12-4-2020 65727447 1515436 14545884 283030 346421 6821 2915 82 (all time high, in the news) 12-5-2020 66847833 1534344 14983425 287825 358900 6925 4795 104 12-7-2020 67938995 1550263 15369046 290443 365843 6950 1309 12 12-22-2020 78292611 1722019 18637612 330087 467215 8125 2643 78 12-23-2020 78956432 1735274 18858583 333358 473273 8179 3271 54 12-24-2020 79729121 1749340 19111326 337066 480319 8294 3708 115 12-28-2020 81540231 1779008 19714429 342556 494337 8427 1372 33 1-9-2021 89529381 1925161 22481008 378462 596251 9938 2992 126 //// //// 3-20-2021 123435876 2722091 30482127 554871 835765 16733 - - 3-24-2021 125336775 2755505 30703162 558333 837849 16842 866 27 3-26-2021 126634918 2778034 30844065 561028 838558 16898 1348 28 3-27-2021 127260279 2788753 30916381 561997 839334 16912 969 14 4-4-2021 131870695 2865071 31416291 568722 844302 16990 840 10 5-6-2021 156667369 3268875 33366760 593986 866623 17367 790 12 //// //// 8-5-2021 201,295,195 4,275,274 36,190,614 631,360 937,936 18,300 281 10 8-6-2021 202,342,010 4,289,522 36,437,866 632,627 940,762 18,342 1267 42 8-11-2021 205,513,682 4,337,615 37,055,916 635,636 952,797 18,406 602 13 //// //// 5-8-2022 517,175,787 6,276,270 83,577,429 1,024,531 2,025,435 30,189 - -The numbers are cases and fatalities, first world wide, then for the USA only, then for Arizona. Finally I give daily fatalities, first for USA, then for Arizona.
Heart Disease -- 635,260 deaths per year in the USA Cancer -- 606,520 deaths per year in the USA Accidents -- 161,374 deaths per year in the USA (includes traffic) Strokes -- 142,142 deaths per year in the USA Covid-19 -- 173,128 deaths as of 8-16-2020 Flu and Pneumonia 51,537 deathsSo Covid-19 shows little chance of being a greater issue than heart disease or cancer. Which is not really saying much given that over half a million die each year from each. We see people everywhere wearing masks, but we don't see people out running to stay in shape and taking care with their diets to avoid heart disease, but that is looking at the other side of the coin. Certainly worth pondering though.
At present, Covid 19 as a cause of death is of the same order as accidents and strokes. Of course the year isn't over yet, and a death from any cause is nothing to brush aside. The point however is that death is a reality with or without Covid-19 and this new virus is simply one more thing to add to a long list of possible causes. At least you could view it that way if you are well adjusted to the reality of dying.
There is little reason to freak out over the possibility of dying from Covid-19 any more than worrying about being killed in some kind of accident.
Given the roughly 1000/day fatality rate for Covid-19, a prediction would be that we will end the year 2020 with 260,000 Covid-19 fatalities.
The USA has a population of 328 million. If at year end, we have lost 250,000 people, that is 0.07 percent of the population. 1 person out of every 1428.
Looking at this again in May of 2022. Daily covid fatalities in the US stand at about 500/day. Pneumonia takes about 100 per day (there were 40,000 deaths from pneumonia in 2018). The CDC gives influenza about 52,000 deaths per year (between 2010 and 2020). So Covid is running about 2 times influenza and pneumonia combined at this time.
Here is a breakdown from another article. Numbers are deaths / cases.
The simplest way to distinguish Coronavirus from a Common Cold is that the COVID-19 infection does not cause a cold nose or cough with cold, but it does create a dry and rough cough. The virus is typically first installed in the throat causing inflammation and a feeling of dryness. This symptom can last between 3 and 4 days. The virus typically then travels through the moisture present in the airways, goes down to the trachea and installs in the lungs, causing pneumonia that lasts about 5 or 6 days. Pneumonia manifests with a high fever and difficulty breathing. The Common Cold is not accompanied, but there may be a choking sensation. In this case, the doctor should be called immediately.
Experts suggest doing this simple verification every morning: Breathe in deeply and hold your breath for 10 seconds. If this can be done without coughing, without difficulty, this shows that there is no fibrosis in the lungs, indicating the absence of infection. It is recommended to do this control every morning to help detect infection.
People often cite "flu like symptoms", whatever in the world that is supposed to mean. Typical symptoms are fever, headache, sore throat, dry cough, loss of taste and smell.
In addition to objects in hospital settings, other common fomites for humans are cups, spoons, pencils, bath faucet handles, toilet flush levers, door knobs, light switches, handrails, elevator buttons, television remote controls, pens, touch screens, common-use phones, keyboards, and computer mice, coffeepot handles, countertops, and any other items that may be frequently touched by different people and infrequently cleaned.
Researchers have discovered that smooth (non-porous) surfaces like door knobs transmit bacteria and viruses better than porous materials like paper money because porous, especially fibrous, materials absorb and trap the contagion, making it harder to contract through simple touch
The following is from another source:
The virus hates heat and dies if it is exposed to temperatures greater than 80°F (27°C).
Therefore hot drinks such as infusions, broths or simply hot water should be consumed abundantly during the day.
These hot liquids kill the virus and are easy to ingest.
Avoid drinking ice water or drinks with ice cubes.
Ensure that your mouth and throat are always wet, never DRY. You should drink a sip of water at least every 15 minutes. WHY? Even when the virus enters water or other liquids through the mouth, it will get flushed through the oesophagus directly into the stomach where gastric acids destroy the virus. If there is not enough water, the virus can pass into the trachea and from there to the lungs, where it is very dangerous.
For those who can, sunbathe. The Sun's UV rays kill the virus and the vitamin D is good for you.
The Coronavirus has a large size (diameter of 400-500 nanometers) so face masks can stop it, no special face masks are needed in daily life. If an infected person sneezes near us, stay 10 feet (3.3 meters) away to allow the virus fall to the ground and prevent it from falling on you. When the virus is on hard surfaces, it survives about 12 hours, therefore when hard surfaces such as doors, appliances, railings, etc. are touched, hands should be washed thoroughly and/or disinfected with alcoholic gel The virus can live nested in clothes and tissues between 6 and 12 hours. Common detergents can kill it. Things that cannot be washed should be exposed to the Sun and the virus will die. The transmission of the virus usually occurs by direct infection, touching fabrics, tissues or materials on which the virus is present.
Washing your hands is essential. The virus survives on our hands for only about 10 minutes. In that time many things can happen, rubbing the eyes, touching the nose or lips. This allows the virus to enter your throat. Therefore, for your good and the good of all, wash your hands very often and disinfect them. You can gargle with disinfectant solutions (i.e. Listerine or Hydrogen Peroxide) that eliminate or minimize the amount of virus that can enter the throat. Doing so removes the virus before it goes down to the trachea and then to the lungs.
Disinfect things touched often: cellphone, keyboard, mouse, car steering wheel, door handles, etc
In 80 percent of people, the disease causes "mild" symptoms, where "mild" is defined as not requiring hospitalization. The other 20 percent will need ICU or a respirator.
It is said that the first week with the virus does not seems serious. During the second week, things either begin to improve or get much worse. So, don't be fooled by the first week.
70 percent of those who need ICU are obese or morbidly obese, with other comorbidities.
Take the "normal" 2018-2019 flu season. In the US, 35.5 million got sick with the flu, 16.5 million of those sought medical care, 409,600 were hospitalized, and 34,200 died. This is a fatality rate of close to 0.1 percent among those who were infected. Similar to the traffic fatality rate.
In 1918, about 1/3 of the worlds population were infected (about 500 million people). There were at least 10 million deaths worldwide (about 2 percent of those infected). 675,000 died in the US.
But there is a lot of discussion on why the models were wrong. Models predicted that 60 percent of Americans would be infected and 1.6 million would die over an 18 month period. We are only 2 months into those 18 months, and right now about 1000 people are dying daily. It does seem that the progress of the virus is not as aggressive as was predicted. One aspect of this that is discussed is that the CFR (case fatality rate) may be significantly higher than the IFR (infection fatality rate). We know the CFR and some models assume that the IFR was effectively the same as the CFR, but apparently this is not so. Many people are infected and have trivial symptoms and may not even be confirmed or reported. There seems to be significant differences in how the virus affects different people. A lot of the statistics are based on those that the virus hits hard and who seek medical care.
It is actually good news of course if the models were wrong and drastically overestimated the seriousness of the virus.The following article suggests that close groups indoors are ideal for spread of the disease (such as concerts, church services, meetings, workplaces) whereas sparse outdoor activities pose minimal risk. This seems just like common sense for something that is spread via the respiratory system. As the article says: "“Clearly there is a much higher risk in enclosed spaces than outside.” It also notes that 10 percent of the cases account for 80 percent of the spread. The article also suggests that "“Maybe slow, gentle breathing is not a risk factor, but heavy, deep, or rapid breathing and shouting is.”
Another number to ponder is the "normal" death rate. 2,813,503 people die every year in America. Nearly 3 million. 863.8 deaths per 100,000 (i.e. 0.86 percent). 7700 people every day. Heart disease is the big one at 647,457 deaths per year (1774 deaths per day).
Can anyone see the potential for disaster here?
Interestingly, Wuhan is not the area where the bats themselves are found, they are found in more subtropical areas to the south. (Near Nanning in Yunnan). This draws suspicion to the lab itself as a possible source for the outbreak. As one article says:It is a remarkable coincidence that the Wuhan Institute of Virology was researching Ebola and SARS-associated coronaviruses in bats before the pandemic outbreak, and that in the month when Wuhan doctors were treating the first patients of COVID-19, the institute announced in a hiring notice that “a large number of new bat and rodent new viruses have been discovered and identified.”
In late December, Wuhan reported the first cases of the coronavirus, linked by authorities to a seafood market in the city. Scientists in China and the West have said the virus is likely to have originated in bats and jumped to humans from an intermediate host -- just like its cousin that caused the SARS epidemic in 2002 and 2003.
In a recent phone call, a friend who has been talking to some doctor friends emphasized to me the highly contagious nature of this virus. He cautioned me not to take it lightly and to do all I can to avoid exposure, especially at my age of 65+ citing an 8 percent mortality rate.
Fatalities in the US were 153 over the last 24 hours, pushing past my 100 per day due to traffic events yardstick. New York is still the hot spot in the US.
There is talk in the US about "not letting the cure be worse than the disease", which is something I have been saying for some time. We may rethink this once we see how bad the disease is. Ultimately it is all about tradeoffs. This discussion is certain to become polarized and heated.
The US population is about 330 million. The Covid-19 mortality rate is 4 percent. Epidemiologists estimate 60-80 percent of the population will be exposed to (and presumably contract) the virus. Call this 70 percent. Using these numbers, a quick calculation would predict about 9 million fatalities in the US once the virus has run its course.
Tom's Doomsday Resources / tom@mmto.org